The application of fuzzy risk in researching flood disasters
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Authors
Li-Hua Feng
Weihu Hong
Zi Wang
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Journal Article, Academic Journal
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Abstract
To perform a fuzzy risk assessment the simplest way is to calculate the fuzzy
expected value and convert fuzzy risk into non-fuzzy risk, i.e., a crisp value. In doing so,
there is a transition from a fuzzy set to a crisp set. Therefore, the first step is to define an a
level value, followed by selecting the elements x with a subordinate degree A(x) C a. The
fuzzy expected values, EaðxÞ and EaðxÞ, of a possibility–probability distribution represent
the fuzzy risk values being calculated. Therefore, we can obtain a conservative risk value, a
venture risk value and a maximum probability risk value. Under such an a level, three risk
values can be calculated. As a adopts all values between the set [0, 1], it is possible to
obtain a series of risk values. Therefore, the fuzzy risk may either be a multi-valued risk or
a set-valued risk. Calculation of the fuzzy expected value of a flood risk in the Jinhua River
basin has been performed based on the interior–outer-set model. The selection of an a
value is dependent on the confidence in different groups of people, while the selection of a
conservative risk value or a venture risk value is dependent on the risk preference of these
people.